Predicting ALL The Oscars 2023 Winners

It's the most glamourous time of the year, unless you're me because then your sleep deprivation and headaches mean that the closest you come to glamour is purchasing a new flannel to cool your forehead. And I had to watch a three hour 3D movie this year, so you can only imagine how bad that was. Regardless, my awards season tradition has entered it's fourth consecutive year and I can once again look any self-proclaimed film buff in the eye and tell them "I had the option not to watch Tell It Like A Woman and I still did, we are are not the same". Let's celebrate Oscars Day by predicting the winner in every single category for the fourth time in a row!

This surely doesn't need saying for a fourth time, but once again I have watched all 54 nominated feature and short films (A increase from last year of 1 film, which means I could have done the same amount of work and still avoided Avatar, but I digress), and kept an eye on the ongoing drama and weaving narratives of the awards season to identify the trends and late-game charges across the nominees.

As ever, you're getting two sets of predictions. The Head pick is the one that I think will win, the Heart pick is what I want to see win. Sometimes those overlap, sometimes they don't. If I get either a head or a heart pick, I call that a win, but if I don't identify the winner film at all, that's a loss for me. Last year I only failed to highlight one singular category (Animated Short screwed me hard), so we're close to a semi-perfect run. Next year, we stop counting the heart picks and go for a true clean sweep. And of course, we're covering each category in the order that the nominees were announced, so this won't match the running order of the night. 

Let's sally forth then.
​

Actress in a Supporting Role

Angela Bassett - Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Hong Chau - The Whale
Kerry Condon - The Banshees of Inisherin
Jamie Lee Curtis - Everything Everywhere All At Once
Stephanie Hsu - Everything Everywhere All At Once

Head: Angela Bassett - Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Once the out-and-out front runner, Bassett’s chances have fallen by the wayside thanks to a snub at the BAFTAs nominations and an unlikely SAG loss to Jamie Lee Curtis. However, despite the Herculean charge of Everything Everywhere All At Once surging ahead in almost every race it’s nominated in, I see this as more ‘spreading the love’ situation. EEAAO is a nail-on in so many other categories that I can see concessions being made come the close of the ballot. That’s not to detract from Bassetts big performance, both in script presence and emotion, which I did enjoy as part of the grief focused story in Wakanda Forever. This is by admission now my shakiest prediction and we could see this go to a contender from EEAAO.
​

Heart: Stephanie Hsu - Everything Everywhere All At Once

But wouldn’t it be great to go to the one that actually deserves the praise? Look, I love Curtis in her role in EEAAO, but Stephanis Hsu had a huge position to fill in that story's narrative that demanded a lot more from her role, both as the generationally traumatised daughter Joy and as multidimensional nihilistic mega-threat Jobu Tupaki. This role asked a lot of Hsu, and whilst I was more keenly aware of her acting ability from the later season of The Marvellous Mrs Maisel, she absolutely delivers with her performance. It’s erratic, homicidal and yet delivers the emotional gut-punches you would want when the cross section of these two characters emerges in the final acts. It’s not an easy role to fill, but Hsu absolutely comes out on top of both that particular challenge, and the pack of nominees.
​

Costume Design

Babylon
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All At Once
Mrs Harris Goes to Paris
​

Head: Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

The love was there from the academy for the afro-futurist stylings of the first Black Panther movie, and I anticipate that the new suits and armours from Wakanda and the Aztec Inspired outfits for the denizens of Talokan will be enough to win this time around too. I mean, I get it, if you can make Namor’s dumb little speedo work and also make him look like an indestructible sun god badass, you’ve definitely passed the assignment. 

Heart: Elvis

Definitely not nearly as showy as other entries in the list, I just really appreciated the period clothing throughout the movie. However, the stand out is the man himself, as a clear effort had been made to represent all eras and looks of Elvis Presley's career, from Hayride to Vegas, and the costumes look suitably authentic and not at all like a joke shop packet costume. The jumpsuits have real dimension and fine detail, exactly as you’d hope.
​

Sound

All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
The Batman
Elvis
Top Gun: Maverick
​

Head & Heart: Top Gun: Maverick

Let’s not sugar coat it, outside of the incredible noise the Batmobile start-up made in The Batman, there’s only one worthy winner and it’s everyone’s favourite dumb bitch movie, Top Gun: Maverick. Amongst its technical wizardry was audio design that gave all the aircraft real weight and the course runs a sense of real speed. The cockpit aural experience felt incredibly realistic and perfectly complemented the cinematography. Everyone knows it’s great and it’s as close as the technical come to a nail-on this year.
​

Original Score

All Quiet on the Western Front
Babylon
The Banshees of Inisherin
Everything Everywhere All At Once
The Fabelmans
​

Head & Heart: Babylon

Another legacy win prediction here. Justin Hurwitz previously won both the Score and Original Song Oscars for La La Land, and deservedly so. This year, he faces far tougher competition from the likes of John Williams and electronica band Son Lux. Whilst either of these two could potentially cause an upset, I just don’t see it going any other way at this time. And with good reason, Hurwitz uses the themes he crafted for La La Land as a basis to create something more chaotic, energetic and jazzy, perfectly mirroring the anarchic plot of Babylon. Whilst the main theme of the two principal characters is not nearly as iconic as ‘City of Stars’ was for his previous winning effort, the repeating brass motifs are a real delight and excellently add pace to what could otherwise be a sluggish experience. Oh, and of course there’s the sultry cover of ‘My Girl’s Pussy’. I mean, that one speaks for itself.
​

Adapted Screenplay

All Quiet On The Western Front
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Living
Top Gun: Maverick
Women Talking
​

Head: All Quiet on the Western Front

Based on a classic German novel, “remake” of a Best Picture winner, it’s hard to deny how this grislier take on the anti-war war movie can lose this, given the surge it was given by the BAFTAs. And it was that BAFTA win for screenplay that locked it in here for me. There is undoubtedly some overlapping sentiment between the two awards giants, and I fully expect to see the love continue to snowball here.
​

Heart: Women Talking

It’s a challenging, gut-wrenching script, littered with absolutely devastating lines of dialogue. There is really nothing else like Women Talking in the category this year and it should be recognised for its levels of nuance and questioning. The predictable joke is that it’s a very Ronseal script, it’s just… well, women talking. It’s a surface level assessment at best and a gross joke at worst. The power behind the discussions in this script and the harrowing trauma responses that each woman's story tells only gives the story further depth and horror. When scripts are written like this, we question our humanity and morality, even as a passive observer. It’s an easy favourite for me.
​

Original Screenplay

​The Banshees of Inisherin
Everything Everywhere All At Once
The Fabelmans
Tar
Triangle of Sadness
​

Head: The Banshees of Inisherin

With a golden globe, a BAFTA and several critics awards under its belt, the stage appears to be set for this Irish black comedy to take home at least one award. And it would be very well earned, as the low-stakes but high-impact nature of the friend's tiff unfolds in a story that addresses legacy, tradition and identity. It’s also very funny, deriving most of it's laughs from the podunk, edge of nowhere lifestyle and concerns of rural Ireland. The ending note was confusing for me, but I enjoyed the escalation of everything leading up to it. There is a generous amount of love for this movie, so I don’t see it leaving empty-handed.
​

Heart: Everything Everywhere All At Once

Come on, you expected me not to pick this? EEAAO’s mind-bending story treads the line between intimate family drama and broad sci-fi multiverse fuckery with expertise and ease. Blahdy blah, Mike loves sci-fi, martial arts and themes of generational trauma, just look at any of his best movie picks he has ever done on this site. You already know I love this, and so do the vast majority of industry professionals and awards body voters. This is by no means a lock, but the steam has not yet run out on this movie. If anything can upset in this category, I hope it is EEAAO.

Live Action Short Film

An Irish Goodbye
Ivalu
Le Pupille
Night Ride
The Red Suitcase
​

Head: Le Pupille

Two words: Alfonso Cuaron. Similar to Riz Ahmed’s win for The Long Goodbye last year, you can fully expect the presence of the Academy darling director of Roma and Gravity to secure the win. Does it matter what the short is about? Not at all. So whilst the short is a weirdly framed parable of desire told through the window of a rural Italian Catholic orphanage, none of that will factor into the decision to give this the win. What matters here is the pedigree.
​

Heart: An Irish Goodbye

Sometimes the shorts give you the more emotional and poignant films of the nominees, and An Irish Goodbye certainly has that, but what it has over any other movie across the categories this year is flat out humour. Following the death of their mother, two brothers must come to terms with her death and make the proper arrangements, which means arranging care for brother Lorcan who has Downs Syndrome. From there, completing their late mothers bucket list forces the two into uncomfortable positions and to reanalyse what each of the boys need. I loved this short, in equal parts for its comedic tone and touching reforging of the brotherly bond. Highly doubt it will win, but gosh it deserves it.
​

Animated Short Film

The Boy, The Mole, The Fox and The Horse
The Flying Sailor
Ice Merchants
My Year of Dicks
An Ostrich Told Me The World is Fake and I Think I Believe It
​

Head: The Boy, The Mole, The Fox and The Horse

There’s always one, isn’t there? Despite a very pleasing pencil stroke art style that evokes the illustrated children's books from which it’s based, I found TBTMTF&TH (Christ that’s an ugly shortening) to be full of empty platitudes and hollow self-love messages, a bit like any wellbeing email circulated around a disgruntled workforce. It does have some very pleasing character design and voice work, but the script for this thing comes off like the unholy love child of a fortune cookie and a live laugh love sign. Unfortunately, it’s this sort of insipid introspective nonsense that Oscar voters seem to lap up in droves, so I expect it to do very well. God, I hope I’m wrong.
​

Heart: An Ostrich Told Me The World is Fake and I Think I Believe It

Honestly I could have put any of the other animated shorts here. I would have been happy to draw attention to Ice Merchant’s heartfelt story of fatherhood and adversity that deserves a win, I would have been happy to point to My Year Of Dicks and its intentionally ugly art style being used as a way to express teenage awkwardness, I could highlight The Flying Sailor and its… uh, crayon drawn dick, I guess? Ultimately, I landed on An Ostrich Told Me The World is Fake and I Think I Believe It, which you could definitely criticise as a meta student film, since that is very much what we are dealing with here. But there simply isn’t anything else in the category that is using the medium to inform the story. Ostrich has the kind of existential panic you’d expect from an Alejandro Iñárritu film, coupled with excellent stop motion. The key to heart thought is the framing device: A literal framing device, as the movie takes place primarily through an external viewfinder. Maybe I’m just a simp for meta movie making, but this one worked the best for me.

Actor in a Supporting Role

Brendan Gleeson - The Banshees of Inisherin
Brian Tyree Henry - Causeway
Judd Hirsch - The Fabelmans
Barry Keoghan - The Banshees of Inisherin
Ke Huy Quan - Everything Everywhere All At Once
​

Head & Heart: Ke Huy Quan - Everything Everywhere All At Once

Probably the biggest lock of the night, Ke has picked up everywhere else with the notable exception of the BAFTA (Which went to Barry Keoghan, who has built a bit of steam but nowhere near enough to dethrone the favourite). However, it is easy to see why this is such a safe bet. As Waymond, Quan delivers not only the comeback of the century, but a heartfelt and loving performance and incredible stunt work carried out almost entirely by himself and choreographed with the level of comedy and precision you’d expect from Jackie Chan. Which is funny, considering that Jackie was the original prospective choice for this role. To be hiding this kind of energy and warmth from moviegoers for almost twenty years seems almost sacrilegious, but is indicative of the limited opportunities afforded to Asian actors in Hollywood. Thankfully, the trend now appears to have been bucked, at least when it comes to recognition within the Academy. Quan would easily top my list even without the love from the awards bodies. 
​

Original Song

‘Applause’ - Tell It Like A Woman
‘Hold My Hand’ - Top Gun: Maverick
‘Lift Me Up’ - Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
‘Naatu Naatu’ - RRR
‘This Is A Life’ - Everything Everywhere All At Once
​

Head & Heart - ‘Naatu Naatu’ - RRR

First off, let me say that this category makes me watch the most garbage movies just to complete my clean sweep (Four Good Days, The Life Ahead, Breakthrough, the list goes on). This year, it’s a tale of two halves, because you’ve still got the inevitable garbage shit-hole movie with a plodding Diane Warren song (Like Four Good Days, The Life Ahead, Breakthrough, the list goes on), and trust me Tell It Like A Woman will undoubtedly feature on the worst list come the end of the year. However, it’s also the only category that honours RRR. Of course, you’ll remember this as one of my favourite movies of 2022, so personal bias here, but I really want it to win. More than that, it’s the only one deserving of the win. It’s an excellently catchy song that actually features in the movie (During what I have come to know as the ‘flex on the whites’ scene) rather than simply playing over the credits. Thankfully, it seems that my opinion and that of the voting bodies actually align here. So far, 'Naatu Naatu' as a song has picked up both a Critics Choice and a Golden Globe which isn't too shabby. The real success story, and the better indication of its upcoming Oscar win, is with the international response to RRR. You can find footage of Hollywood screenings of this film online and crowds are hooting and hollering like it’s opening night of Avengers: Endgame. There is genuine love from critics when it comes to this film, and my prediction is that it translates to a historic win for Indian cinema.

Documentary Feature

All That Breathes
All The Beauty And The Bloodshed
Fire Of Love
A House Made of Splinters
Navalny
​

Head: Navalny

As you might expect, the real world climate does affect the decision of the Academy, and the ongoing war being waged by Putin in Ukraine, sadly now entering it’s second year, will inevitably have an impact towards Navalny. Not to say this entry would only take home the statue based on the actions of a tyrannical asshole, far from it. Navalny is a component produced documentary with one absolutely astonishing scene where the plan to assassinate the Russian opposition leader is laid bare in front of Alexei Navalny himself. The doc portrays Alexei as a truly three dimensional person, fully aware of the danger he puts himself in as a critic of Putin and also knowing that this movie may act as his eulogy. A great watch for certain.

Heart: Fire Of Love

I’m a sucker for movies made about weirdos, and the subject of Fire Of Love being two weirdos who love nothing more than dangling themselves into volcanos was right up my alley. Its French cinema influences did not escape me and whilst these normally turn me right off a movie, here I was able to appreciate it as an extension of the Kraffts academic and idiosyncratic natures. What was truly special was to see how their personal lives were captured on home video, how this informed their professional output, and the impact their work had on the future of volcanology and those whose lives are affected by volcanic eruptions. 

​Documentary Short Film

The Elephant Whisperers
Haulout
How Do You Measure A Year
The Martha Mitchell Effect
Stranger At The Gate
​

Head & Heart: Haulout

This might be one of the weakest blocks of films in this year's ceremony. It was difficult to pick something I was confident would win, and while the feel-good vibes of The Elephant Whisperers could be my undoing here, Haulout features some absolutely stunning photography and neatly concludes its narrative with minimal dialogue and with surprising levels of nuance. It’s precisely the reason why I also chose it as my favourite, as the images stay longer in the memory compared to anything else in the category this year. Watch something stupid like Stranger At The Gate get the win now just for being full of American white folks.

​International Feature Film

All Quiet On The Western Front
Argentina, 1985
Close
EO
The Quiet Girl
​

Head: All Quiet On The Western Front

Booked it, packed it, fucked off. Just look at the record this movie has had over this awards season. It absolutely dominated at the BAFTAs and set a record for wins for a non-English language film there. Its late game surge absolutely solidifies the win here, only bolstered by the baffling choice to leave Park Chan Wook of Oldboy fame’s latest film Decision To Leave out of the running. I'd describe it as a wonderfully put together and empathetic adaptation of the source material, but unfortunately one that doesn't do anything to elevate World Word 1 cinema like 1917 did. By no means should you avoid the movie, but it is over two hours of pain, misery and death, with the occasional bureaucratic roundtable to mix things up. Good, but not my favourite.
​

Heart: The Quiet Girl

The biggest surprise in this year International Feature was the Irish entry The Quiet Girl. Similar to it's titulat character, it's a very quiet coming of age story with a story that encourages watchers to break silences and choose kindness over imposing cruelty. For anyone with toxic family ties or friendships, I imagine this one will hit home even harder than it did for me. The movie gives out such warmth, from the idyllic Irish countryside setting, to the heartstring -tugging performances of Carrie Crowley and Andrew Bennet, who play the kindly Kinsellas who agree to take the child in. It's a simple story, but one that it pleasingly so and with an uplifting ending, something that is rare in this years nominees.
​

Animated Feature Film

Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio
Marcel The Shell With Shoes On
Puss In Boots: The Last Wish
The Sea Beast
Turning Red
​

Head: Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio

Given that this film was snubbed in other categories (Most notably for Original Song for ‘Ciao Papa’), I would say this is one of the biggest nail-ons of the night. Del Toro is a visionary director that is no stranger to taking Oscars home, most recently for 2017’s The Shape of Water (Which I liked and to which Darren famously coined the adage “Zod Was Right”), but this campaign feels different compared to previous efforts. This time, the win is not being sought because of the particular effort that has been put in, although that too should be praised. It’s a meticulously crafted film with absolutely stellar stop-motion work, but also one that pivots the traditional view of Pinocchio to focus on death and the horror of existence. Beyond that though, this campaign is for the legitimisation of animation as a medium of storytelling for all audiences; a campaign I am 100% behind and have supported in the past when fantastic animated movies get snubbed in favour of cookie-cutter children's entertainment. Serious reform is needed specifically in the animation branch of Academy voting and I hope that Del Toro achieves this goal with this win.
​

Heart: Marcel The Shell With Shoes On

I absolutely loved this movie, in large part because of its creativity and originality, but it is also weapons-grade cute and weird from start to finish, which is obviously going to get my attention. It’s surprisingly based on a handful of YouTube videos from over 10 years ago, making it an unlikely adaptation, both in terms of the jump from 4 minute short to feature length, but also without losing any of the home-made charm and eclectic dialogue present in the source material. It does a great job of applying scale in order to heighten the sense of adventure, which expertly transposes the inferiority that the grand scale of the unknown has on our perceivable lives. Only it does that with a one inch tall shell leaving his home for the first time. And my god does it tug at the heartstrings. Its tale of coping with change and loss, and how to come out of our own shell (Cue rim-shot and applause), is undoubtedly going to hit home with a wide range of audiences. I just hope that it also lands with members of the Academy.
​

Makeup And Hairstyling

All Quiet On The Western Front
The Batman
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Elvis
The Whale
​

Head: The Whale

Historically, this category tends to award the make-up more favourably over the hair. It's what previously led The Eyes of Tammy Faye, Vice and Bombshell to their respective wins. It also really helps if you can get someone into a fat suit. Enter The Whale, where the man in the fat suit is the protagonist and the action of the story take place entirely within his home. Since the fat-suited Brendan Fraser is rarely off screen, it's easy supposition to peg this for the award, which is exactly what I'm going to do.
​

Heart: The Batman

If you want to talk about a transformation, lets talk about Colin Farrell. You could have given me an infinite number of guesses and I would not have said that he was underneath the face of the Penguin. For that alone, I think The Batman should pick up an Oscar. The other efforts are good enough, there's an obscured look at a chemically burned Barry Keoghan as the Joker which could also be taken into consideration, as well as the panda-eyed Batman himself when the make is taken off. It's for sure not as obvious a pick, but come on. That Penguin is worth it.

Production Design

All Quiet On The Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
Babylon
Elvis
The Fabelmans
​

Head & Heart: Babylon

I was initially leaning between All Quiet and The Fablemanns, but I had left Babylon until late on in my death race. My God, the effort that has been taken to build elaborate period sets simply has to be recognised. There's a oner in this movie that loops around a silent film backlot in the California desert where the team have constructed about 12 different film sets, not to mention the medieval battleground they are conducting in the distance. Babylon is a very densely packed movie oozing with details, and despite what you think of the plot or the runtime, it is never boring to look at. It reminds me most of Mank, which won in 2021 for similarly depicting a period accurate Hollywood, so there's your pedigree. Care was also made in both films to ensure that sequences in black and white similarly worked authentically for the correct contrast in martials and colours. You can expect this divisive film to walk away a worthy winner on the night.
​

Editing

The Banshees of Inisherin
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All At Once
Tar
Top Gun: Maverick
​

Head: Elvis

Editing has always been my bad faith category for the Academy. It's not always necessarily the best edited movie that wins it, often the film with the most visible amount of editing. Bohemian Rhapsody was easily the worst offender for this. Now, Elvis doesn't reach those infamous lows, but with it being a Baz Lurhmann production, you can expect a LOT of heavy-handed editing. The last couple of year, this hasn't been the case, but every couple of years you do get a confusing stupid winner, which is what I'm predicting here.
​

Heart: Everything Everywhere All At Once

For the last two years, the right movie has won it. In the event that the above described stupid pick doesn't get it, then this has to go to EEAAO. This film has to juggle a lot of balls, slicing in sequences shot on completely different sets and with different action to show the blending of alternate realities. Combine that with convincingly sequenced martial arts scenes and I'd argue that we haven't seen anything quite like the efforts made here in a good long while. It would be another deserving win, but I fear that we would begin to over-estimate EEAAO's steam on the night.
​

Cinematography

All Quiet On The Western Front
Bardo, False Chronicle Of A Handful Of Truths
Elvis
Empire Of Light
Tar
​

Head: All Quiet On The Western Front

Yeah yeah, war movie look good. Listen, we need to talk. Where is Top Gun: Maverick in this category? How is it that Elvis, Tar and Empire Of Light are here above the movie where Tom Cruise threw his cast and crew into a fighter jet and told them to hold the camera and their stomachs? It’s quite literally the most thrilling part of that movie! It is the most baffling decision to leave Maverick out of the running here, especially when it’s thrown into the ring for its weaker elements, like screenplay. If you considered this Best Picture material, at least honour the thing that put it on that pedestal! Anyway, All Quiet will probably win it, it looks good.
​

Heart - Bardo, False Chronicle Of A Handful Of Truths

You know what? Screw this category. In protest of leaving the obvious winner out of the nominations, I’m picking by far the least favourite to win. Bardo is a fucking weird movie. It’s long, rambling, and very specific to the experiences of growing up in Mexico and keeping at an arm's distance later in life. It is a movie made by Iñárritu, for Iñárritu. But goddamn, this is Kubrick levels of ‘every frame a painting’. It’s completely unique in the way it pushes and pulls the eyes through staging and character movement, all the while capturing each frame with precision and purpose. There is no way in hell that it wins. But credit where it's due, it's certainly the most unique and deserving in it's category. Well, besides the snubbed Top Gun.
​

Visual Effects

All Quiet On The Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
The Batman
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Top Gun: Maverick
​

Head - ​Avatar: The Way of Water

God, this is depressing. I could have avoided watching Avatar: The Way of Water had the technical branches not banded together to absolutely ruin one of my Sunday afternoons. Credit where it's due, you can see why this is nominated here. The effects are reasonably well done, considering there's about five scenes that aren't entirely CG. But it's just so obviously not real, though. Like, sure, it takes place in a world where island fly and lanky Smurfs have brains in their hair, but it's so fantastical in it's concepts, it quite obviously isn't real and therefore does not trick the eye. I guess the sheer man hour needed to render this thing down into a distributable product does deserve some credit, or at least some consideration for the poor graphics cards that wept trying to get this thing compressed. So, it does make sense to win. But Best Picture? Come the fuck on.
​

Heart - All Quiet On The Western Front

The campaign for visual effect went incredibly hard for All Quiet, to the point that I was seeing it's For Your Consideration adverts and I am in no way getting a chance to cast any votes. I think what's most commendable with All Quiet is now the visual effects both limit the eyeline of the horizon whilst filling it with just enough harrowing imagery to evoke the setting. There's some quite impressive efforts to add scale to the movie that when you see the pre-vis shots show the level of effort to ground the movie in realism whilst maintaining the enormity of the horror of World War 1. Given the late surge it's having, this is more of a "Look out for this" pick than a Heart pick, but the points stand. I was reasonably surprised and pleased.
​

Actor in a Leading Role

Austin Butler - Elvis
Colin Farrell - The Banshees of Inisherin
Brendan Fraser - The Whale
Paul Mescal - Aftersun
Bill Nighy - Living
​

Head & Heart: Brendan Fraser - The Whale

Ooh, taking a gamble here! This once three horse race has now become a dead-heat between Brendan Fraser and Austin Butler. What has tipped this into more of a certainty for Fraser is his win at SAG, which is one of the later awards bodies to give out it's branches gongs and typically signifies the ways in which opinion is shifting leading up to the big night. Butler could easily sway voters like he did at the BAFTAS, but ultimately I am going to ride on the surest looking horse, that being Fraser. Plus, this does support the narrative of the Brenaissance, which coupled Frasers recently revealed experiences that led to his disappearance from the silver screen for the better part of a decade, would be the Academy redemption that he so deserves. But to touch on the actual performance, it's exactly the the kind of big, showy effort you'd expect. There's shouting, crying, quiet whispering, the works. It's complexity is bought about entirely by Fraser, playing his character with a gentleness and kindness that masks previous selfishness that has manifested as self loathing. There's certainly layers to the character's narrative, which should be rewarded specifically for Frasers performance, since the films direction often finds the grossest ways of visually showing this struggle. Either of the two contenders would be a worthy and well-reasoned win, but I would prefer to see Fraser's comeback start on the right foot.
​

Actress in a Leading Role

Cate Blanchett - Tar
Ana De Armas - Blonde
Andrea Riseborough - To Leslie
Michelle Williams - The Fabelmans
Michelle Yeoh - Everything Everywhere All At Once
​

Head: Cate Blanchett - Tar

I'll level with you: I don't get the love for Tar. I tried, god did I try. I like Cate Blanchett in almost everything else she is in, but my god this film did not need to be nearly as long as it was. That's not to say that Blanchett is doing nothing for that run time. In fact, there's a huge degree of dickishness she is able to put forward in her performance that I respect. But it just takes far too long for the unravelling of her state of mind to reach a point of any interest. I found myself shouting at the screen for Cate to evolve her character, but the script was holding her back right until the last 45 minutes. I get that I am in the minority here, but I just didn't see a career defining role here. That being said, I am leaning towards this given how many other awards she has been picking up this season.
​

Heart: Michelle Yeoh - Everything Everywhere All At Once

This is once again a dead-heat situation between Cate Blanchett and Michelle Yeoh. It's been a gruelling and ugly category this year, from Angela Risborough's controversial nomination that seemingly was bought on by Gwyneth Paltrow's 'goop job' of screenings, to Yeoh herself insinuating on Instagram that Blanchett has won enough Oscars already. However, the narrative for a EEAAO sweep is so engrossing that you absolutely cannot rule Yeoh out of this race. And I don't need to tell you how much I love EEAAO and her performance as Evelyn, which was a very demanding role considering the stunt work that was required, as well as the self-principled consistency required to synchronise her alternate reality performances and their continuity to come out well choreographed in the edit. It would also be a win for Asian representation and an acknowledgement of Yeoh's many years working in front of the camera. I'd love to see it happen, and it just might some the night.
​

Directing

Martin McDonagh - The Banshees of Inisherin
Daniels - Everything Everywhere All At Once
Stephen Spielberg - The Fabelmans
Todd Field - Tar
Reuben Östlund - Triangle of Sadness
​

Head & Heart: Daniels - Everything Everywhere All At Once

If you'd have asked me who would win here, I'd have comfortably said Spielberg for directing the drama version of his life. That was close to a nail on, with maybe Edward Berger in a late game surge for All Quiet or a McDonagh upset if Banshees had done better outside of the BAFTAS. I'd have still wanted the Daniels to take it, but I figured that was a long shot choice for anything outside of Ke Huy Quan. Then Berger got snubbed, Banshees fell off and all of a sudden there were no pretenders to Spielberg's throne. And then the DGAs happened. There is absolutely no doubt now that the Daniels will take this one, pure and simple. Again, I loved this movie wholeheartedly and I am ecstatic that the Daniels are getting the recognition for their unique vision. Long may the directing duos like Daniels and Lord & Miller reign, and as long as they do, we get high quality ground-breaking movies that please audiences and warrant awards recognition. It's a win for everyone.
​

Best Picture

All Quiet On The Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
The Banshees of Inisherin
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All At Once
The Fabelmans
Tar
Top Gun: Maverick
Triangle of Sadness
Women Talking
​

Head & Heart - Everything Everywhere All At Once

What a rollercoaster it has been to get here! Released in March last year before the 2022 Oscars had even been handed out, this little film that could went from a fun quirky action sci-fi featuring that dude who played Short Round, to a critical darling, to a box office runaway success story that put Multiverse of Madness to shame, to a rallying cry for independent cinema, to an awards season black sheep, to an awards season powerhouse. And now look where we are. 12 months later, EEAAO has not left the minds of it's audiences, the mouths of the critics and pundits, and has only climbed the odds to trouble a win for almost all of the 11 nominations it is in contention for. It's monumental success in all fields has built up a narrative of love and respect throughout the awards season, and whilst the BAFTAs may have stuck up their nose, there is absolutely no denying it at this point: I can confidently predict that my favourite movie of last year will win Best Picture. Feels good to put that into words, validating even. Fantasy and sci-fi movies often get so overlooked come Oscars time, and they often make up some of my favourite movies, so I could not be more pleased that it's getting the recognition it will most likely get. As I said in my Best Movies of 2022 article, EEAAO is a wonderfully weird, but greatly realised, personable and endlessly entertaining movie. You just do not get movies with this degree of variety, inventiveness and uniqueness very often. Let's celebrate this fresh vision and it's likely win as much as we can, as the world would be poorer without it.

By Mike Owen
@ThatMikeOwen
​
The Editor in Chief of Foul Entertainment, Mike edits most of what you see on the site. He runs the production of our podcasts, and currently pens Pop Culture Club articles.

---