Predicting ALL The Oscars 2021 Winners

We have a tradition here at Foul ENT. It's only been a tradition for the past two years, but it's a tradition nonetheless. Much like last years historic Oscars ceremony where we saw Bong Joon-Ho's masterpiece Parasite take home a bevy of awards including the covert Best Picture, which I called by the way, I have now seen all of the films nominated at this years academy awards. And as our newfound tradition dictates, I will today be attempting to predict, either by head or by heart, all of the winners of the famous golden statuette across all 23 categories. 

To prepare for this article, I have watched all 41 feature and 15 short films, an increase from last year of 4 features, which is surprising given that it felt like absolutely nothing came out in 2020, however the early months of 2021 have bought fresh challengers to awards season, some upsets and in rare cases new frontrunners. 

For the uninitiated, the predictions are divided into two categories. The Head pick is the one that I think will win through logic, examining the trends from previous Oscar wins and other wins across other awards ceremonies, such as the BAFTAs, and the guilds own awards, such as the DGAs or SAGs. The Heart pick is what I consider to be the worthy winner, despite all evidence and trends to lead me astray. Call it a cop out, but having two punts at the winner gives me a better chance of ticking off correct predictions. not that I think I'll need it with this years mostly predictable awards season.  This year, we're looking to beat my 17 correct calls (10 Head & 7 Heart if you're interested), and we're going in the order in which last years awards were given out.

To quote the great scholar Michael Bolton: "Boys, let's get to it".

Actor in a Supporting Role

Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah
Leslie Odom Jr., One Night in Miami...
Paul Raci, Sound of Metal
Lakieth Stanfield, Judas and the Black Messiah

Head - ​Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah

From one Black Panther to another, the first foregone conclusion of the night goes to none other than the man responsible for both Posh Kenneth and Parking Patewayo. Kaluuya's rise to Hollywood stardom has been sudden but certainly earned, most notably his turn in Get Out which rocketed his status in the awards scene. Kaluuya has picked up a SAG, a BAFTA, a Critics Choice and a Golden Globe already for his portayal of Fred Hampton, so it looks like this will be a clean sweep from this beloved British star,

Heart - ​Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7

If this doesn't set the tone for my article, I don't know what will. The once and future Borat's turn as yippie Abbie Hoffman was for me the best in this list. His performance has been derided for his unplaceable accent, however you only have to reference this to archival footage of Hoffman and the performance put in by Daredevil star Vincent D'Onofrio in Steal This Movie to see the clear inspirations. Baron Cohen gives a standout performance filled with humour for sure, but one that hides an undying rebellious attitude, which makes him one of the best choices to bring this character to the screen.

Animated Feature Film

Onward
Over The Moon
A Shaun The Sheep Movie: Farmageddon
Soul
​Wolfwalkers

Head - Soul

It's a Disney/Pixar movie. It will win. I don't know what else there is to say, it's sweeping the awards circuit (Most notably the Annie for Best Feature) and it's one of the two films any of the board of voters will have seen. It's not even a bad film, it's just a shame we only took a year out to honour the excellent Into The Spider-Verse before we go back to showering Disney animations with accolades. I liked it, sure, but not this much.

Heart - Wolfwalkers

I have slept on Cartoon Saloon as a studio for a long time. I may now have to go back and see Secret of Kells and Song of the Sea, as if they're anything like Wolfwalkers, they will be totally engaging and magical experiences. Beautifully animated with interesting plays on the 2D perspective, this draw (literally) on Irish folklore was a beautifully crafted and earnest fable that was a joy to watch from start to finish. It's only a shame that the re-instrumented "Running With The Wolves" isn't eligible for Original Song, as that sequence sold the film for me completely.

Animated Short Film

Burrow
Genius Loci
If Anything Happens, I Love You
Opera
​Yes-People

Head - If Anything Happens, I Love You

Oh hey, an animated film that feels like an earned win. A simplistically presented yet emotionally deep commentary on the culture of school shooting in America and it's ramifications for parents, this short hits like a truck without a word uttered. We're most likely going to see a number of wins this year made in commendation of the commentary it makes, which is why despite a win this season, I can't see this one losing.

Heart - Opera

Closer to an art piece than a film, Opera comments on the rise and fall of nations, the brutality of religion, the exploitation of the working class, the corruption of elevated status, the folly of war and the cruelty of any potential deities... all in one panning shot. Some might criticise it for its looping animations, however it's hard not to re-watch this short again and again to catch another loop that tears down part of the world we've built. Like I said, closer to art, but then art often imitates life better than life presents itself.

Original Screenplay

Judas and the Black Messiah
Minari
Promising Young Woman
Sound of Metal
The Trial of the Chicago 7

Head - Promising Young Woman

Listen, this may be a head pick, but this is a totally worth winner. Promising Young Woman's script is a biting, disillusioned drama that deal heavily with America's rape culture and the protection of the privileged few with some great subversion in it's dialogue and tension. It picked up the Writers Guild of America nod for best screenplay, which would make it a lock from most perspectives.

Heart - The Trial of the Chicago 7

I just really like this one, okay? I know people rag on Aaron Sorkin, especially when he's directing, but I thought this film was so well paced, with scenes of marches playing out like a war movie and courtroom dialogue that is anything but ordinary, which captures the absurdity of the miscarriage of justice perfectly. Many have found its ending to be far too melodramatic, which I can see, however I think it ends with the right amount of optimism for a trial where it seems there was none to be had by its defendants. Try and tell me that the scene where Bobby Seale is gagged and bound isn't effective, and I'll show you a mirror that contains a wrong opinion.

Adapted Screenplay

Borat Subsiquent Moviefilm: Delivery of Prodigious Bribe to American Regime for Make Benefit Once Glorious Nation of Kazakhstan
The Father
Nomadland
One Night in Miami...
​The White Tiger

Head - Nomadland

Here we go. Nomadland is the awards circuit darling this year, so it is a serious contender for any category it's up in this year. They could have thrown in a single CGI scene of Frances McDormand morphing into an Oscar at the end and it probably would have been nominated in visual effects. Here, Nomadland is based on a non-fiction book of the same name chronicling the older generation living out of vans following the 2007/09 recession. Sure. Okay. I bet more happens in the book though. Look, it's going to win and I can't explain why.

Heart - The Father

Based on the play of the same name and bought to the screen by it's original scribe in his directorial debut, Florian Zeller's The Father should not be this good for a first attempt. In truth, it's easily the best stage-to-screen adaptation of this awards season and may prove to be the best of the year. A heart-breaking and powerful first-person perspective of living with dementia that uses a limited location and revolving cast to tell a tale that is equal parts disorienting and emotionally visceral, this is the only film based on a play to feel like an earned transition to film in the nominees.

Live Action Short Film

Feeling Through
The Letter Room
The Present
Two Distant Strangers
​White Eye

Head - Two Distant Strangers

Can you say "relevant social commentary equals win"? This is one messy, messy short. Its tropey, ham-fisted and far too blatant to be taken seriously come its almost comical ending, but here's something you have to understand: The Academy is clambering to be relevant. With viewership of the ceremony tumbling year on year, it is less now about the best films and more about what is the best film for the time. In a year following the seminal moment of the Black Lives Matter movement following the murder of George Floyd, a film that explicitly shows a white cop murdering a black man, no matter how badly put together, will win. Because relevance.

Heart - Feeling Through

What's this? More relevant commentaries on disenfranchised communities and the mistreatment of people with disabilities? And it's a heartfelt look into human connection and mutual respect? Yeah, it has absolutely no chance at winning, because nobody will frankly care about the important message contained in this short surrounding creating equality as to each persons needs. It's much easier to vote blindly for the racial issues short. Please check this one out if you can, it's easily one of the best shorts I've seen in a long time.

Costume Design

Emma
Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Mank
Mulan
Pinocchio

Head - Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

Following the Costume Designers Guild award, it's hard to argue against Ma Rainey's 20's flapper fashion, despite the fact it does look surprisingly cheap. It comes to something when the narratively important pair of shoes doesn't even look that impressive , but hey, the guild has decided this one will win this year and that's all there is to say. They didn't even put Ma Rainey in black bottoms. Rip-off.

Heart - Mank

Jumping forward two decades, it's hard to get costume right for more contemporary time periods. Mank at least understands that whilst suits are boring, showing plenty of workwear, party clothes and time-accurate film costumes makes it visually more appealing and lends to the excellent production design. Amanda Seyfried benefits the best from this, whose costumes are always dialled up to 11 in the best ways.

Production Design

The Father
Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Mank
News of the World
​Tenet

Head - Mank

A win from the Art Directors Guild, bolstered by a BAFTA and a Critics Choice, makes this the clear winner here. And it's hard to argue against, as the scale of the Hollywood lots and outdoor sets fill the frame so elegantly. Even in the indoor spaces, notably Mankiewicz's retrat and Hearst's castle-like home, allow the designers to run free creating spaces that reflect the demeanour of the people inhabiting it, without standout room features like the imposing fireplaces and dinner tables that are present at the lavish parties.

Heart - The Father

The only film that is worthy of topping Mank in this category is The Father, as it's singular set that morphs and deceives as the movie goes on is pretty much a character all to itself and another facet of Anthony Hopkin's characters reality that degrades and changes unannounced to great effect. Standout examples are when the broom cupboard opens out to harrowing scenes and the resetting family dinner that seems to reveal layers of anguish and resentment.

Documentary Feature

Collective
Crip Camp
The Mole Agent
My Octopus Teacher
​Time

Head - My Octopus Teacher

It's the prequel to The Shape of Water that nobody asked for! No, but seriously, the conversation has shifted the past few weeks from this being a solid win for Time, to this. A movie where there are two types of shot: Creepy white dude presumably interviewing himself and underwater GoPro footage. I'd love to tell you that there's more than meets the eye, but there just isn't. The movie attempts an emotional through-line that ultimately falls flat and uninteresting past the 30 minute mark. At least it's one of the shorter ones to sit through.

Heart - Collective

Documentaries were a bit of a wash-out this year, however Collective gripped me from beat one and only let go when it cut to black. As the Romanian government is shown to have filled its pockets and risked the health of thousands of its citizens, Collective feels like a necessary watch following the pandemic, especially for those of us in the UK. A potent reminder that a notable human tragedy with ongoing social impact does not necessarily mean that incompetence, greed and hatred of the working classes ends. It serves as a reminder as to how great the NHS is and acts as a parable warning just how deplorable our own ministers could have been in the right circumstances.

Documentary Short Subject

Colette
A Concerto Is a Conversation
Do Not Split
Hunger Ward
​A Love Song for Latasha

Head - ​​A Love Song for Latasha

Relevant social commentary Part 2: Electric Boogaloo. Focusing on the untimely shooting of Latasha Harlins in the background of the L.A. Riots, this short is retold almost like a motion comic with its blend of still and moving image to recap the life that was taken too soon. Sadly, it just isn't as engaging as other in its category, but it's much a case of right place right time when it comes to this emotive short.

Heart - Colette

This simultaneously heart-warming and heart-wrenching short follows ​Colette Marin-Catherine as she travels to Germany for the first time in 74 years, along with a history student who inspires her visit to the place where her brother died at the hands of the Nazis. It somehow manages to convey the complex emotions of a three-quarter century battle with trauma and acceptance in a relatively short run time, and for that it deserves the nod. I can't see it happening due to the relevance argument, but I would be moved if it did.

Actress in a Supporting Role

Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsiquent Moviefilm: Delivery of Prodigious Bribe to American Regime for Make Benefit Once Glorious Nation of Kazakhstan
Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy
Olivia Coleman, The Father
Amanda Seyfried, Mank
Yuh-Jung Youn, Minari

Head & Heart - Yuh-Jung Youn, Minari

From legendary Korean screen presence to Oscar winner, this is absolutely a nail on for Yuh-Jung Youn. And with good reason. Her performance is all at once mystical, stubborn, mischievous, aloof, nostalgic and stoic. The key part of this, however, is the relationship with the grandson character, played by Golden Globe winner Alan Kim. Between them, there is a rivalry that breed understanding by the end of the picture. And the turn of circumstance during the run of the movie is shocking and warrants praised for the shock it illicits from it's physically perfect portrayal.

Sound

Greyhound
Mank
News of the World
Soul
Sound of Metal

Head & Heart - Sound of Metal

Who would have thought it, the movie that primarily focuses on sound will win the gong for Sound?! Sarcasm aside, the movie uses it's sound, or lack thereof, to create tension and stress in such a unique way in its first half, which is replaced by hope following this, and conflict by the end. There really is nothing like it in the race this year, it is a wholly unique take on the experiences and practices of the deaf community and I couldn't be happier that it is guaranteed to talk away with at least one award.

Film Editing

The Father
Nomadland
Promising Young Woman
Sound of Metal
The Trial of the Chicago 7

Head - Sound of Metal

Much like last year, the technical awards tend to be won either by the same or similar movies, which is what I'm hoping for here. I would be thrilled to see Sound of Metal take this one, as it is competently structured and edited to tell the story of burgeoning hope against physical adversity. 

Heart - The Trial of the Chicago 7

Again, why does everyone hate this one? The sequences in this movie showing the marches and later 'riots' feel more akin to great World War movies with how the scale of the action is dictated by the editing. As the story bats around the separate camps within the titular 7 and their defence lawyers, the sequences in Trial keeps up a fantastic pace that brilliantly used the rise and fall in tension to great effect.

Cinematography

Judas and the Black Messiah
Mank
News of the World
Nomadland
The Trial of the Chicago 7

Head - Nomadland

haha wide open landscapes go brrrrrrrrr. I have no desire to write further about this film. Seen one dutsy plain, seen them all.

Heart - The Trial of the Chicago 7

There is a certain sense of scale when it comes to Trial that makes it feel unironically epic, and I don't mean that as a term of derision. With regards to making it feel like then whole world was watching the outcome of this trial, there certainly is an effort to mirror this scale and social importance in the way that the characters are shot. The 7 are presented almost as messiahs leading their disciples(Particularly Abbie Hoffman), which wholeheartedly works with making these figures match the scale of the story. 

Visual Effects

Love and Monsters
The Midnight Sky
Mulan
The One and Only Ivan
​Tenet

Head - Tenet

For all intents and purposes, Tenet's visual effects are the only thing I can give it that I don't take issue with. The reverse car flipping, imploding/exploding buildings and pocket wars are pretty faultless, and in a better movie may have bolstered it as an action masterpieces. However, these sequences are found in Tenet and well... The less said the better.

Heart - Love and Monsters

This plucky little film that could is not necessarily the best in terms of how it integrates its effects, but the monster and machinery design are so utterly charming that I can't help but root for it. It has every opportunity to make the normal drab, colourless post-apocalypse, however there is colour and vibrancy found in the effects that makes this nature-claimed wasteland look far more alive than you would expect.

Makeup and Hairstyling

Emma
Hillbilly Elegy
Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Mank
Pinocchio

Head - Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

I wish I had more to say about this, but I just did not rate Ma Raney's Black Bottom highly enough to discuss it that much. Big 20's makeup that looks closer to parody that high fashion is the name of the game, and it looks like it will be a game with the prize set as an Oscar. 

Heart - Pinocchio

Is this film a weird, otherworldly fable that brings a Brothers Grimm tale to life? Yes. Is it also a nightmarish hellscape of anthropomorphic affronts to God? Also yes. Is the makeup on the titular Pinocchio so think and heavy that it prevents the poor child actor from emotion during the entire runtime? Yes again. But it is the only film with the balls to try something all out and I have huge respect for it's attempt to translate the horror and whimsy of the folklore it is based on. But yeah, it's also a nightmare. 

International Feature Film

Another Round
Better Days
Collective
The Man Who Sold His Skin
Quo Vadis, Aida?

Head - Another Round

Many have called Another Round a celebration of life, but I think it's far easier to see it as story about the crutches we need to make it through modern life. Regardless of what you think, the movie has been critically lauded and has been sweeping the foreign language awards across all other ceremonies. Easily the biggest nail on of the night after Thomas Vinterberg's directing nod

Heart - Quo Vadis, Aida?

An exercise in doom and desperation, Quo Vadis, Aida? frames the story around an exodus of Bosnian people who are helplessly fleeing genocide at the hands of the Serbian militia and it keeps that impending sense of bloodshed steadily approaching with incredible grace. There are a number of scenes where you will find yourself clenching your fists and pulling at your hair hoping that the helpless refugees can make it out of danger, with an incredibly poignant ending that farces both you and the characters to face some harsh, stinging realities of modern warfare.

Original Score

Da 5 Bloods
Mank
Minari
News of the World
Soul

Head - Soul

Nine Inch Nails might not be who you think of when it comes to jazz music, however the spectral nature of the soul aspect of, err Soul, cannot be be overstated. The blend of the traditional jazz music with the almost alien soundscapes of the Great Before blend together surprisingly well.

Heart - Minari

Mirroring the ethereal sense of tradition that Yuh-Jung Youn brings in her potentially winning performance, the Minari score sounds more like the kind of music you'd expect to hear upon entering the afterlife rather than entering Arkansas. But as the titular Minari grows in its unsuspecting habitat, so does this soundtrack fit the spring of hope that the Yi family farm represents.

Original Song

“Fight for You", Judas and the Black Messiah
“Hear My Voice”, The Trial of the Chicago 7
“Húsavík”, Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga
“Io Si (Seen)”, The Life Ahead
“Speak Now”, One Night in Miami

Head - “Speak Now”, One Night in Miami

It might have only played through the credits, but Hamilton alumni Leslie Odom Jr. delivers the easy frontrunner for Original Song. Speak Now embodies the contemplative tone of the movie very well, and is the song that works equally well separated from its movie as a piece of songwriting.

Heart - “Húsavík”, Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga

It's a semi-parody that somehow manages to work as self-styled Eurovision entry. And it's in a Will Ferrell movie! It's tantamount to a miracle that this comes together as well as it does, but Husavik works on so many levels in terms of tying the story off and emulating the big ballad feel of a Eurovision contender. I mean, I wish we could have had Ja Ja Ding Dong, but the world can be cruel sometimes.

Directing

Thomas Vinterberg, Another Round
David Fincher, Mank
Lee Isaac Chung, Minari
Chloé Zhao, Nomadland
Emerald Fennell, Promising Young Woman

Head - Chloé Zhao, Nomadland

UUUUUUURRRRRRRRGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHHHH we'll come back to this.

Heart - Emerald Fennell, Promising Young Woman

For a feature length debut, Fennell manages to direct otherwise well known comedic talents to deliver a biting, reflective movie that subverts expectations in all the right ways (Looking at you Rian, you know what you did). Not only that, the movie manages to capture some beautiful shots that form almost a tableau of tragedy that befalls its protagonist as the revenge flick unfolds. I honestly can't praise this enough, even the divisive ending I think pays off in its gamble.

Actor in a Leading Role

Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal
Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Anthony Hopkins, The Father
Gary Oldman, Mank
Steven Yeun, Minari

Head - Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

It's easy to dismiss this nomination and prediction as little more than a post-humous acknowledgement of Boseman's short yet illustrious career, but... actually no, that is exactly what this is. The performance is probably the best part of an otherwise less-than-stellar adaptation of the stage play, but it's far from Boseman's best (For my money, it is his turn in Get On Up). It's a very binary performance that is either carefree and rebellious, or flat out murderous. There is precisely no in-between. It's really inelegant, and I feel like we would be having a very different conversation had he not sadly passed, but this really is not the final bow Boseman deserved.

Heart - Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal

From Brother Omar to easily the best performance of the season, Ahmed's frustration and desperation is all too empathetic and his struggle to adjust the biggest shift in this characters life is so wonderfully realised, rough edges and all. Even just the eyes tell a story in this performance, which was mesmerising from beginning to end.

Actress in a Leading Role

Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom 
Andra Day, The United States v. Billie Holiday 
Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman
Frances McDormand, Nomadland
Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman

Head - ​Frances McDormand, Nomadland

This really has been anybody's game right up the wire, as nominations have been all over the place when it comes to the leading actresses. However, it is far too easy to miss that this choice fits this years narrative; you just cannot ignore Frances McDormand. She is an actress I do love, and I can appreciate how she acts as an audience surrogate in this movie, but I just cannot get behind the vacuum of presence this character has. And that is not the fault of McDormand, who can tell stories with her pained expressions. 

Heart - Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman

The only movie that is primarily about the female experience (You can argue Pieces of a Woman, but that seemed far more about everyone else's reactions to the experience rather than the experience itself) unsurprisingly has the best female performance. There is a level of cunning and vengeance that bubbles under Mulligans performance that makes her imposing and heroic in equal measures. She takes the decision made in the screenplay for this character and embellishes them with venom and hurt that dances the line between sympathy and psychopathy with utter precision. It will be a crime if she doesn't win.

Best Picture

​The Father
Judas and the Black Messiah
Mank
Minari
Nomadland
Promising Young Woman
Sound of Metal
The Trial of the Chicago 7

Head - Nomadland

I don't think I have truly detested a movie like this since Phantom Thread and I doubt I will for a long time. It's here I would discuss the plot, except there isn't one. There is no substance to this film, from the minimal soundtrack, to the void of acting talent, to the bare bones through-line for its protagonist. In the podcast for the Oscars this year, I likened this to a student film, and that's exactly what it feels like. It's just footage. It's a technical exercise and nothing more. There is no warmth to be found, no great revelation to discover and no mountains to overcome. NOTHING. HAPPENS. There is a black hole where this movie should exist and I think critics have stared into the void for too long and they've gone mad. The only thing I will give this movie is that it has led a monumental awards season push. Some mad bastard has managed to convince critics the world over that this white noise, waste of space, absence of a flick is somehow the best of the year. That lad wants to get in on the ground floor on selling air guitars and tartan paint, because he is the greatest grifter to have ever lived. Let me be absolutely and positively clear: Fuck. This Movie.

It'll win though, you'd be daft to go against the narrative this year.

Heart - Literally ANY other nominee

As you might expect following that outburst, I would be happy with anything else winning over Nomadland. No joke, this is not a cop out. I am that confident in its pre-meditated win that I will right here forfeit my heart win should Nomadland not take best picture. I will, however, use this as a platform to implore any readers to watch any other the other 7 nominees for Best Picture. If I had to pick just one as my heart pick, there is no easy answer. Right now it's a three way tie between Promising Young Woman, Judas and the Black Messiah and The Trial of the Chicago 7, but I cannot ignore how much I have thought about both The Father and Sound of Metal after seeing them. Basically, I would rather any of these movies swoop in and take the win from that awful, awful piece of shit.


And there we have it, another year of frenzied film viewings in the rear mirror, and I can tell you I will be very happy to get back to watching dumb movies filled with explosions to dumb myself back down in time to celebrate next years award season. As we all await the glorious day we can get back into the cinema, I hope you use this article as a guide to watch some truly great films at home. And hey, if you too ever struggle with your anxieties of achieving greatness, just remember that Nomadland forces us all to watch Frances McDormand to shit into a bucket and then won Best Picture. You too can achieve anything.

By Mike Owen

@ThatMikeOwen
The Editor in Chief of Foul Entertainment, Mike edits most of what you see on the site. He runs the production of our podcasts, and currently pens Pop Culture Club articles.